Michelle Cipullo
Denver
Summary
Catastrophe modeler with over 13 years of experience in atmospheric science, hazard modeling, and climate risk analytics. Experienced in developing catastrophe models for severe convective storm and extratropical cyclone perils, applying statistical and probabilistic methods to characterize risk, and communicating results to both technical and non-technical audiences
Overview
16
16
years of professional experience
Work History
Associate Director
Impact Forecasting - Aon
06.2023 - Current
- Core member of the research and development team responsible for the design, development, and release of the U.S. Severe Convective Storm (SCS) catastrophe model, launched in November 2024.
- Developed statistical methodologies to generate the stochastic event catalog, leveraging historical observations, meteorological datasets, and probabilistic modeling techniques.
- Designed and implemented dependency structures between peril characteristics (e.g., event length, width, intensity for individual subperils of hail, wind and tornado) to preserve realistic relationships within the stochastic catalog.
- Applied advanced statistical methods, including multivariate modeling and copula-based approaches, to characterize correlations among convective storm attributes.
- Conducted model validation and performance assessment against historical observations and industry loss experience to evaluate model accuracy and robustness.
- Performed loss analyses using Elements loss modeling framework to assess model behavior and support internal and client-facing studies.
- Presented model methodology, validation results, and business applications to internal stakeholders, clients, and industry audiences.
Atmospheric Scientist
Jupiter Intelligence
01.2020 - 01.2023
- Build Climate Score Planning products that provide high-resolution regional risk analytics for current and projected future climates. Creating this product involves:
- Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model
- Data acquisition, model validation and bias corrections where necessary
- Application of climate change projections based on the most up to date Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) data
- Contribute to Climate Score Global product that provide high-resolution global risk analytics for current and projected future climates. Areas I contribute to:
- Produce wet-bulb globe temperature metric that provides information on heat stress in current and projected future climate
- Regrid and prepare large global observational data sets utilizing parallel computing with python Dask library
- Contribute to model weighting process by assessing how well climate features predict target variables. This involves statistical and machine learning methods
- Https://jupiterintel.com/products/#%23product-climatescore-planning
Senior Scientist, Atmospheric Science
AIR Worldwide
01.2013 - 01.2020
- Built Extratropical Cyclone and Severe Thunderstorm catastrophe models for use in the insurance and reinsurance industry
- Ran WRF model simulations
- Created and validated historical catalogs for clients
- Worked with multidisciplinary teams to build stochastic catalogs based on observational data, model simulations, and statistics
- Contributed atmospheric analysis of the Wildfire model stochastic catalog winds to subset fire events that were likely initiated from power lines
- Taught new employees and clients about AIR Worldwide hazard models
- Https://www.air-worldwide.com/Models/Extratropical-Cyclone/
Research Assistant
North Carolina State University
01.2011 - 06.2013
- Researched the impact of potential climate change scenarios on extratropical cyclone event frequency, intensity, and track density in Europe and the British Isles
- Modeled present and potential future climate using the WRF model
- Evaluated changes in model results using extreme value theory to assess impact on tail events
Undergraduate Student Research Program (USRP)
NASA Marshall Space Flight Center
01.2010 - 12.2010
- Validated case study using assimilated NASA satellite data and point observations from the Great Lakes to predict lake effect snow
- Forecast and trend analysis of location and intensity of lake effect snow
- Statistically analyzed the effects of the assimilated data on thermodynamic properties on lake effect snow forecasts
Teaching Assistant
North Carolina State University
- Led atmospheric science labs for undergraduates in Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences (MEAS) program
Education
MSc. - Atmospheric Science
North Carolina State University
Raleigh, NC06-2013
BSc. - Atmospheric Science
North Carolina State University
Raleigh, NC12-2010
BA - Journalism and Mass Communication
University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Chapel Hill, NC12-2008
Presentations Publications And Workshops
- Extending Risk Insights Using Impact Forecasting’s US SCS Model, Cipullo M. and L. Powers. Nat Cat Revealed 2026, New York, NY
- Estimating Future Projections of a Simplified Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature from CMIP6 Models, Cipullo, M., American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting, 01/22, Boulder, CO
- NCAR Workshop on Climate and Weather Extremes, 01/18, Boulder, CO
- UK Windstorms and Climate Change, An Update to ABI Research Paper (No 19), Robinson, E., M. Cipullo, P. Sousounis, C. Kafali, S. Latchman, S. Higgs, P. Maisey, L. Mitchell, 01/17
- Are You Prepared for the Next Winter Storm?, Cipullo, M. and B.Kordi, Webinar presentation AIR Worldwide, 01/16
- High-resolution Modeling Studies of the Changing Risks of Damage from Extratropical Cyclones, Cipullo, M., W.A. Robinson and G. Lackmann, North Carolina State University, Master of Science Thesis, Marine, Earth & Atmos Sciences, 01/13
- Forecasting lake-effect precipitation in the Great Lakes region using NASA enhanced satellite data., Cipullo, M., A.L. Molthan, J.L. Case and G.J. Jedlovec, American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting, 01/11
Skills
- Proficient in Python, R, Fortran, Bash shell scripting, SQL, GIS, Linux, Microsoft suite, and using version-controlled git repositories
- Familiarity with using Amazon Web Services for cloud computing and data storage
- Knowledge of statistical methods such as extreme value theory, regression models, bias correction, Statistical and dynamical downscaling of atmospheric data
Timeline
Associate Director
Impact Forecasting - Aon
06.2023 - Current
Atmospheric Scientist
Jupiter Intelligence
01.2020 - 01.2023
Senior Scientist, Atmospheric Science
AIR Worldwide
01.2013 - 01.2020
Research Assistant
North Carolina State University
01.2011 - 06.2013
Undergraduate Student Research Program (USRP)
NASA Marshall Space Flight Center
01.2010 - 12.2010
Teaching Assistant
North Carolina State University
MSc. - Atmospheric Science
North Carolina State University
BSc. - Atmospheric Science
North Carolina State University
BA - Journalism and Mass Communication
University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill